The US has by no means imported a lot meals

The US, recognized for being a worldwide agriculture powerhouse, has by no means imported a lot meals.

Inbound shipments of all the things from avocados to espresso and sugar are anticipated to drive the nation’s agriculture commerce deficit to a file $49 billion this yr, the US Department of Agriculture stated in its commerce outlook report. At the identical time, America’s most generally grown crops have been dropping abroad markets over the previous many years.

It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that when used its considerable meals provides as a device of statecraft, with the US now dealing with a way forward for persistent agricultural commerce deficits. The nation imported extra meals than exported yearly since 2023. Before then, the one different annual deficits had been in 2019 and 2020, throughout President Donald Trump’s commerce battle with China, and several other years previous to 1960.

Trump has pledged 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada items from March, together with an extra 10% tax on China’s items. That might make issues worse, elevating the price of importing meals if international locations retaliate and farming items get caught within the crosshairs.

American imports of farm items are forecast to climb 6.5% within the yr ending September 30 to $219.5 billion, with inbound shipments of avocados, orange juice and low accounting for a lot of the rise, the USDA stated. Exports are forecast at $170.5 billion, 2.2% decrease than a yr earlier.

“Avocado imports from Mexico, the largest commodity in terms of import volume, are expected to increase on strong demand and improved growing conditions,” the USDA stated.

Pricey cocoa and sugar are additionally including to the import invoice. And whereas some grain exports are anticipated to rise, conventional American crops have been loosing attract abroad for years, with Russia overtaking the US because the world’s high wheat shipper and Brazil surpassing the US as the most important exporter of corn, cotton and soybeans.

The USDA’s outlook was primarily based on insurance policies in impact as of February 11 — it doesn’t embrace the 70 million to 100 million eggs the nation will look to import to deal with file costs and the worst-ever outbreak of avian influenza.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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