By Thabile Nkunjana
President Donald Trump’s second time period in workplace and his threats shouldn’t be taken calmly as a result of he’s appearing on his guarantees this time, which must be adequate for different international locations he has talked about in passing or throughout conversations. Consider Mexico and Colombia, the place Presidents Gustavo Petro and Claudia Sheinbaum could have interpreted Trump’s remarks calmly earlier than his directives have been issued.
In reference to South Africa particularly, Trump just lately declared that he was stopping assist to the nation whereas an inquiry was to be performed, citing “human rights violations.” The most vital prerequisite for African international locations to be eligible for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is that their human rights have to be in step with its provisions.
On February 7, 2025, Trump signed an government order titled “addressing egregious actions of the Republic of South Africa” to show his seriousness about his stunts over what he considers to be a human rights violation in South Africa.
Different opinions from these of Trump or his administration would possibly put any nation in actual bother at this fee, no matter whether or not you’re an ally, or neighbour of the US. This can also be true for South Africa particularly when one thought of commerce between the international locations.
South Africa’s world commerce
Like many growing international locations, South Africa’s economic system is predicated totally on exports, and the nation has been importing and exporting merchandise starting from pure assets to agricultural merchandise, turning into increasingly built-in with a few of the world’s strongest economies over the previous 30 years. The prime buying and selling international locations with South Africa are listed beneath, primarily based on information from the World Trade Organisation, the UN Conference on Trade & Development, and the International Trade Centre.
As of 2023, South Africa’s total exports to the world amounted to R2 trillion, and China (R230.3 billion) was the biggest market with a share of 11%. US (R155.5 bn) was the second-largest market with a share of 8%, adopted by Germany (R144.2 bn) (7%), Mozambique (R114bn) (6%), Japan (R106bn) (5%), UK (R97bn) (5%), India (R93bn) (5%), Netherlands (R79.3bn) (4%), Botswana (R77.3bn) (4%) and Belgium (R68.7bn) (3%).
South Africa imported R1.9trl price of merchandise globally in 2023. China (R404.4bn) (20%), US (R169.7bn) (9%), Germany (R160.2bn) (8%), India (R137.8bn) (7%), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (R73.7bn) (4%), Thailand (R64.5bn) (3%), Saudi Arabia (R57.1bn) (3%), Japan (R49.9bn) (3%), Oman (R47.1bn) (2%), and Italy (R44.4bn) (2%), have been the highest suppliers of all of the merchandise that South Africa imported.
South Africa’s total trades with US
As beforehand acknowledged, the US is South Africa’s second-most essential buying and selling associate, which is critical for South Africa given the quantity of merchandise it buys and sells to the US. However, it’s essential to do not forget that South Africa’s commerce with the America for US’s profit is negligible.
For occasion, solely 0.4% of the R37.2trl in world exports made by the US in 2023 went to South Africa, in distinction with 8% of South Africa’s exports to the US throughout the identical yr. In 2023, South Africa was ranked quantity 41 out of greater than 200 locations for US exports.
As a outcome, the US would hardly discover if it stopped buying and selling with South Africa, however South Africa wouldn’t really feel the identical means. In phrases of commerce, this makes it apparent who wants greater than whom.
Vehicles, nuclear reactors, minerals, electrical equipment, and aeroplanes are among the many prime merchandise that the USA exports to South Africa, whereas the highest merchandise that South Africa exports to the US are valuable stones, vehicle elements and equipment, aluminium, nuclear reactors, iron, metal, ores, slag, and ash, to say a number of.
South Africa’s agricultural commerce with US
The agriculture sector is a significant benefactor of commerce between the 2 international locations by way of the Agoa. According to commerce map information, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US accounted for at the least 4% of the nation’s $13.2bn (R244bn) whole agricultural exports in 2023.
The main agricultural merchandise that South Africa exported to US in 2023 have been oranges with US accounting for 8% of all recent oranges exported by South Africa to the world. Other prime agricultural merchandise exported to the US included mandarins (11%), macadamia nuts (27%), wine (8%), ice cream (62%), sugar (9%), dried grapes (18%), apple juice (68%), peaches (16%), and grapefruit juice (16%).
Leading agricultural imports by South Africa from USA included poultry with USA accounting for 28% of South Africa’s whole poultry imports in 2023, almonds (95%), whiskies (11%), cattle livers (57%), grain sorghum (33%), and maize seed (29%) to call a number of.
Agricultural exports from South Africa to the US by province
In phrases of worth, 49% of South Africa’s whole agricultural exports to the US between 2018 and 2022 got here from the Western Cape. In 2022, the Western Cape province exported R4.7bn price of agricultural items to the US, which made up 54% of all South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US. Mpumalanga was the second largest beneficiary by province (R1.27bn) adopted by Gauteng (R894 million), Eastern Cape (R593m), and KwaZulu-Natal (R549m) in 2022. Other provinces had small share of their merchandise exported to the US with North-West the least beneficiary.
In closing, over time, South Africa’s worldwide commerce has grown. From R1.3trl to R2.0trl, the international locations’ whole exports grew by 56% between 2019 and 2023. For the identical interval, South Africa’s whole exports to the US climbed from R90.8bn to R155.5bn, a 71% rise.
Specific to agriculture, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US have elevated total, rising from R5.2bn in 2019 to R9.1bn in 2023. At least 4% of South Africa’s whole agricultural exports to the world as of 2023 went to the US.
Even although commerce has benefited each international locations, South Africa stands to lose essentially the most if commerce relations deteriorate. With only one.5% to 1.6% financial progress predicted between now and 2026, South Africa can be worse off.
It is crucial that the present state of affairs in South Africa be dealt with with excessive warning. This holds true for lobbyists and political figures nationwide as a result of nobody will likely be exempt from the financial penalties if South Africa loses AGOA.
Nkunjana is a senior agricultural economist with the National Agricultural Marketing Council’s commerce analysis unit. He writes in his private capability.
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