• Hurdles for frequent foreign money plan, borderless agenda in West Africa
• Countries account for simply 8% of ECOWAS GDP
Effective in the present day, the trio of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, stop to be members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), however with an unlimited toll on an already robust regional cooperation within the space of commerce and safety.
The army governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger collectively introduced their exit from ECOWAS with speedy impact on Sunday, and three days to the expiration of their exit discover. The exit has shrunk the West African financial bloc from 15 to 12 member states.
The three nations had on January 28, final yr, collectively indicated their choice to withdraw their membership from the bloc, for a rival confederation – the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
They accused the management of the ECOWAS bloc, led by Nigeria, of constituting a risk to their sovereignty and folks by coming below the affect of overseas powers, and allegedly betraying its founding rules.
Going by the regional protocols, the letter takes impact in the present day, and the complete area is apprehensive over the seemingly implications of their exit on the area and on particular person nations, notably those that share frequent borders with them.
Stakeholders reckon that Niger’s exit, as an illustration, might seemingly create an influence vacuum within the area, which may very well be exploited by extremist teams because the nation has been a key participant in regional counter-terrorism efforts, notably within the battle towards Boko Haram and different extremist teams working within the Sahel.
The implication is that with out Niger’s participation, ECOWAS’s skill to coordinate regional safety efforts will likely be severely impaired.
Already, the French army’s withdrawal from the Sahel has heightened considerations over the conflicts spreading southward to Gulf of Guinea states like Ghana, Togo, Benin and Ivory Coast.
The exit may even influence a borderless area agenda of ECOWAS.
According to the 2023 Africa Visa Openness Report, 97 per cent of ECOWAS country-to-country journey routes require no visa for regional people. Because folks of the three Sahel states commerce with West African nations and different nations, they’re prone to lose these rights, until they’re protected by separate bilateral agreements. In addition, with the trio’s exit, the remaining members might start to levy import duties or require visas from their residents.
The ‘divorce’ has extra collateral damages. The Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Strategic Communications and Communications Adviser to the President on ECOWAS Commission, Linda Akhigbe, famous that there are no less than 132 residents of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, serving in several ECOWAS establishments, who’re prone to lose their jobs.
Similarly, ECOWAS establishments in these nations additionally danger a shutdown. These embody the West African Health Organisation (WAHO), ECOWAS Centre for Water Resources and ECOWAS Youth and Sports Development Centre, all in Burkina Faso. Others embody ECOWAS Resident Representative in Mali and Niger in addition to ECOWAS Regional Food Security Reserve located within the nations.
“So, there’s going to be closure of the regional meals safety reserves in these three nations and as a consequence of the withdrawal of AES from ECOWAS, the employment of their residents could be terminated. It is unattainable to keep up them because of the circumstances.
They may even exit the Inter-Governmental Action Group Against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA), and you know the way essential GIABA is by way of coping with monetary crimes and all that. Even although the AES nations have requested to stay in GIABA, this must be seen.
“We also have the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), which is a financial institution that facilitates wealth creation, economic growth and industrialisation for the well-being of the community members. There is going to be a halting of EBID’s development programmes and projects in these three countries, including the over $3 million credit facility granted Mali’s main bank,” the SSA mentioned.
She feared that the exit would take its toll on humanitarian interventions, together with peacekeeping, humanitarian assist and regional integration and growth initiatives.
Speaking additional on the results of the nations’ choice to go away, a public affairs analyst, Mr Paul Ejime, identified that casual commerce by itinerant merchants could be grossly affected.
In 2022, whole commerce volumes, together with imports and exports, from the ECOWAS area to the remainder of the world totalled $277.22 billion, in line with knowledge from the area’s Trade Information System (ECOTIS) portal.
Total exports from ECOWAS have been price $131.36 billion. Burkina Faso contributed $4.55 billion out of this quantity; Mali exported $3.91 billion price of products; and commerce with the remainder of the world accounted for $446.14 million. Mali’s imports have been price $6.45 billion, Burkina Faso $5.63 billion, and Niger $3.79 billion. While the economies of the three nations account for simply eight per cent of ECOWAS GDP, withdrawing from ECOWAS might quantity to the nations condemning themselves to financial isolation.
Ejime added that with no regional bloc to undertaking a typical entrance, the three nations may also discover it tough to learn from international our bodies such because the European Union (EU) or Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), which want to cope with African regional blocs.
“The idea is that instead of dealing individually with 15 ECOWAS member-states, they come under one umbrella, which is easier. So, their exit will reduce ECOWAS projection in terms of trade and exchanges. Although their contributions might not be huge compared to Nigeria, it will further diminish what comes from the region, especially when compared with other seven regional blocs within the continent,” Ejime mentioned.
At a time when the area was in dire want of funds for the execution of developmental tasks, will probably be shedding the yearly contributions (calculated on the Gross National Income (GNI) of every member state) of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Despite the nations’ low contribution attributable to their poor economic system, it was impactful to the working of the physique.
There can be worry {that a} damaged ECOWAS bloc might encroach on the efficient implementation of the five-year-old African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The full implementation of the AfCFTA settlement is projected to extend actual incomes by seven per cent, or practically $450 billion.
Since the three nations are sure by the provisions of the regional and continental treaties, together with the AfCFTA, their exit might complicate and weaken the pillars of the agreements.
A Professor of Accounting and Financial Development at Lead City University, Ibadan, Godwin Oyedokun, expressed worries that the trio’s exit may lower commerce integration.
Considering that ECOWAS performs a vital function in facilitating commerce amongst its member-states, Oyedokun added that the departure of those nations may disrupt present commerce agreements and inhibit the circulation of products and companies, that are important for the success of AfCFTA.
Since AfCFTA goals at making a single continental marketplace for items and companies, such exit might result in a “fragmentation of markets” making it more difficult to determine uniform tariffs and rules throughout the continent.
Oyedokun added that the political local weather within the three nations may additionally have an effect on regional stability and cooperation.
“If these nations are facing internal conflicts or governance issues, it could undermine collaborative efforts needed for AfCFTA’s implementation. The exiting countries may also experience economic isolation, which could lead to reduced foreign investment and hinder their economic growth. This isolation may also limit their ability to engage in trade negotiations effectively within the AfCFTA framework.”
While the exit might have a detrimental impact on the harmonious working of the bloc, others have equally opined that the three exiting nations stand to lose extra from their actions than the area.
A former marketing consultant to the ECOWAS Commission and a member of the Advisory Council, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Professor Jonathan Aremu, maintained that breaking away from the three French-speaking nations would harm them greater than it will harm the remainder of West Africa.
Aremu mentioned: “The only way ECOWAS member-states may be affected is in the implementation of some of the trade agreements within the sub-region, such as trades across borders and other economic relationships, which they also signed before these countries pulled out. But as far as AfCFTA is concerned, they will be the losers,” he mentioned.
Furthermore, many provide chains in West Africa have over time, relied on cooperation amongst ECOWAS members and disintegration might disrupt the provision chains and consequently, have an effect on manufacturing and distribution networks which might be essential for regional and broader continental commerce.
In as a lot as Nigeria repented of its sanctions towards Niger and expressed disappointment over the three nations’ departure from the bloc which it hosts, and deployed a number of methods to appease them to alter their thoughts on the exit plan, an announcement from Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had however, reiterated the nation’s stance with ECOWAS in upholding due course of and sharing dedication to guard and strengthen the rights and welfare of all residents of member states.
The assertion held that Nigeria had labored in good religion to succeed in out to all members of the bloc in direction of resolving their challenges however the actions of the exiting nations buttressed that not all members shared “the same good faith.”
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have been founding members of ECOWAS again in 1975, however the regional group had imposed sanctions on them following army coups that overthrew elected civilian governments.